We try to analyze the reasons for Russia - Ukraine conflict from an Indian view point. The causes underlying the biggest war in Europe after WWII are much more deeper than what majority of Western media would point out. There are historic, political and military dimensions to this war.
Historically, the division of West and Russia begins with religion. The West is majority Catholic and Protestant countries and Russia belongs to the Orthodox branch of Christianity. European protestantism originated around 16th century and that itself was a result of a division within the Catholics. Western Catholic church was based in Rome with the Pope as the head and Eastern Orthodox church was based in Constantinople (today's Istanbul, Turkey). Both Catholic and Orthodox churches considered themselves as the true church and the other as the deviant. These two churches had very little communication over the centuries. Historically, Russians considered themselves as the protector of Orthodox communities across Europe, Middle East and North Africa. Though the power of Russian orthodox church was curtailed during the Communist period (1917 - 1990), it plays an influential role in Russian politics today. The current patriarch of the church, Kirill (Kirill - Wikipedia) is said to be close to president Putin.
For the West, Russia is a country they have never been to bring under their control even though they tried a few times. The most famous ones are Napoleon's invasion of Russia in 1812 and Hitler's Operation Barbarossa in 1941. Both campaigns had many parallels. Napoleon was effectively the French emperor of Europe and the Fuhrer had most of Europe under his Nazi Reich when they started the war against Russia. The Russian war would become the turning point for both leaders and they will see their power and the empire in ruin at the end of it.
French campaign managed to capture Moscow and Napoleon's forces set fire to large part of the city but even then Russia refused to surrender. Napoleon retreated back to France with harsh weather, lack of supplies and Russian counter-attacks decimating French forces. Russian campaign had weakened Napoleon and dented his invincibility and after a few years he will be defeated and overthrown by the combined forces of Britain, Prussia and Russia. Nazis devastated Western and Southern Russia and reached a few miles close to Moscow but then they were pushed back. The 'great patriotic war' as Russians call their fight of survival against the Nazis, will eventually see Russian red army marching to Berlin and forcing Hitler to commit suicide in his bunker.
The root of the Ukrainian problem lies in what happened in Eastern Europe and Russia's immediate neighborhood in last three decades after the fall of communism. It has everything to do with US led NATO alliance's gradual expansion to the borders of Russia. At the end of cold war, East European countries abandoned Communist systems and became free from Soviet/Russian control. In 1990, after the fall of Berlin wall, Soviet Union agreed to withdraw its troops from East Germany and allowed the reunification of Germany. At that time, NATO had promised the Soviet Union that they will not expand eastwards. But NATO did not honor the promise and they expanded eastwards including to the Baltic countries which were earlier part of the Soviet Union. In the last decade, NATO has been setting up missile defense system in Poland, Czech republic and Romania against strong objections from Russia and the official reason given was to defend Europe against Iranian missile threats. It was obvious that none of these countries face any missile threat from Iran but the real objective was always to neutralize the missile capabilities of Russia in Europe,
NYT - NATO Considers Missile Defense Upgrade, Risking Further Tensions With Russia.
CNN - U.S. launches long-awaited European missile defense shield
Putin has lamented the collapse of Soviet Union many times in his speeches. He once described the event as the greatest tragedy of the 20th century. After the fall of communism and dissolution of Soviet Union, Russia entered a period of economic, social and military weakness. The economy collapsed, there was a time when Russia was unable to pay salary for it's soldiers and Islamist separatists launched an insurgency in the Caucus republics especially in Chechnya. The West kept on pushing the NATO alliance eastwards without any regard for the security concerns of Russia.
The status of three former Soviet republics, now independent countries came to a head - Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. In 2008, war broke out between Russia and Georgia over the conflict between Georgian state and the two Russian backed separatist regions in Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia defeated Georgian army and recognized both regions as independent,Wikipedia - Russo-Georgian War. These two regions are internationally considered to be part of Georgia and Russian control of the same would effectively block Georgia's entry into NATO as NATO would not be willing to admit a country with Russian army presence in it's territory. Moldova also find itself in a similar situation as a pro-Russian separatist region Transnistria hosts a Russian peace keeping force. The peace keeping force was stationed as part of a ceasefire agreement after the brief war between Moldova and Transnistria in 1992, Wikipedia - Russian military presence in Transnistria.
Ukraine is the biggest former Soviet republic apart from Russia and it sits between Europe and Russia. Russia see the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO as a mortal threat to it's own national security. In 2014, when the pro-Russian Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was overthrown by protesters in Kiev and a pro-Western government was installed Russia was alarmed. Interestingly, even though Yanukovych was a democratically elected president, Western countries did not object his removal as it suited their interest. Russia annexed Crimea which was part of Ukraine but has a 60% majority Russian population in the immediate aftermath. After a few years, Russia incorporated Crimea as part of Russian federation. Crimea is strategically situated in the Black Sea, If NATO had ever gained control of Crimea, Russia would have been denied access to Black Sea and, by extension, to Mediterranean and Adriatic sea.
Henry Kissinger, arguably the most renown statesman in Post-WWII US history, argues in this Washington Post article dated March 5, 2014, WP - Henry Kissinger - Ukraine , that Ukraine should neither join the East or the West, but it should function as a bridge between them. He says the ideal choice for Ukraine should be to not join NATO and pursue a policy similar to Finland.
Ukraine is a divided country with East and South of the country culturally, linguistically and politically different from the rest of the country. The difference is based on history as East and South of the country was part of Russia (lately, Soviet Union) for many centuries. Novorossiya was a province of Imperial Russia which roughly correspond to East and South Ukraine of today.
On the other hand, many part of Western Ukraine was integrated into Ukraine when Russia and Nazi Germany divided eastern Europe amongst themselves in 1939, better known as Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact.
Ukraine's regional divide is manifested in its politics. There is geographical distinction within Ukraine regarding attitude towards Russia. The people in Eastern Ukraine feels more closely related to Russia and generally supports good relation with Russia. The support for NATO is the lowest in these regions. On couple of occasions when a Pro-Russian candidate, Viktor Yanukovych, won the Ukrainian presidential election, he got most of his support from East and Southern Ukraine. The vote map for 2010 presidential election which Yanukovych won can be seen here, Ukraine Presidential Feb 2010 Vote (Yanukovych). The vote map for 2012 parliamentary elections can be seen here, Yanukovych's party in Blue . Yanukovych argued for a neutral stand for Ukraine with the country not joining NATO or a Russian military alliance. He was ousted in 2014 as EuroMaidan protests erupted in the capital Kiev over Yanukovych's decision to reject a trade deal with EU. Russians helped him to flee the country to Russia where he has been living till now.
The internal division within Ukraine and its geographical position as Russia's neighbor calls for a neutral status for Ukraine between NATO and Russia. But the West thinks it can pull Ukraine to NATO with no regard to Russia's security concerns. In fact, this policy is driven by US with Europeans going along with it. But as a great military power Russia thinks the West has pushed too far and decided to push back. It is just as Kissinger and Kennan had predicted.
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